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Archive for the ‘Finance’ Category

Stock Market – What's in a Trading Edge

Thursday, September 16th, 2010

Unless you are able to develop a considerable trading edge over the other traders, you will end up losing your money, even if you are disciplined and organized. In this article, I discuss some elements that I use in my trading edge.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is the process of evaluating the financial condition of a company using financial reports, price/earning ratios, revenues, market share, sales and growth, etc. This type of analysis can be time consuming so instead of going through pages of financial reports, I simply look at IBD ratings.

I like to use Investor’s Business Daily (IBD found at investors.com) to get a quick overview of a stock. The IBD rating covers:

1 – Earnings Per Share (EPS) rating: tells me a stock’s average short term (recent quarters) and long term (last three years) earning growth rate. The number I see is how the company compares to all other companies. The scale runs from 1 to 99, 99 being the best.

2 – Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating: Measures a stock’s relative price change in the last 12 months in comparison to all other equities. The scale runs from 1 to 99, 99 being the best.

3 – Industry Relative Price Rating: Compares a stock’s industry price action in the last 6 months to the other 196 industries in IBD’s industry list. The scale is from A to E, A being the best.

4 – Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (Return on Equity) Rating: Crunches a firm’s sales growth rate during the last 3 quarters, before and after profit margins and return on equity into one letter. The scale is from A to E, A being the best.

5 – Accumulation/Distribution rating: Applies a formula of price and volume changes in the last 13 weeks to determine if it is being accumulated or distributed. A = heavy buying, C = Neutral, E = heavy selling.

If you like the idea of including fundamental analysis into your trading plan, consider trading only stocks that meet some minimum requirements – for example A or B, > 70, etc.

I like to use fundamental ratings for longer term trades such as the ones I plan on weekly charts. It is not really useful if you trade intraday.

Technical Analysis

Fundamental analysis is great to build a list of strong stocks, or as a way to filter out weak stocks, but that’s about it. It does not provide you with an objective method to enter and exit trades. All my trading decisions (entry, exit, and stops) are based on technical analysis.

Technical analysis is the study of prices. The price action draws patterns on charts and because human behavior can be repetitive, the price patterns can also be repetitive.

You can choose from a variety of chart types. The Japanese candlestick charts are by far the best and it is the only form you need. There are entire books dedicated to the study of candlestick patterns – if you are serious about studying candlestick charts, look at books written by Steve Nison and and Gregory L. Morris.

- Support and Resistance: The most important concept in technical analysis is Support and Resistance. It forms the foundation for every trading decision and could cover many pages but I will limit myself to simplified definitions and a couple examples:

Support level: A price level that a declining market or stock failed to penetrate
Example: the low of the previous day forms an area of support and is often used as a stop loss.

Resistance level: A price level that a rising market or stock failed to break through
Example: a prior high in an uptrend forms an area of resistance and can be used as a minimum objective to take some profits.

Some technical indicators may also provide some support and resistance, for example moving averages, in part maybe because so many traders expect it.

- Oscillators

An oscillator is a technical indicator that tells you at a glance whether a market or a stock currently trades in an “overbought” or “oversold” condition. Some traders use oscillators to forecast a change of direction. Some examples include the RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, and MACD.

There are hundreds of oscillators and technical indicators. I personally look at them to filter out some stocks if I have too many good ones to choose from. I never use them as a signal to open or close a trade.

- Public Sentiment

I look for support and resistance on the VIX (Volatility Index) daily chart to anticipate reversals.

I look at the Put/Call Ratio (5 MA and 10 MA) on the daily chart to see if traders are too bearish (MAs > 0.8) or too bullish (MAs < 0.5).
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Stock Investing Tip

Thursday, September 16th, 2010

If you are looking for a Stock Investing Tip you have come to the right place. Investing tips come from everywhere and from all sources. From strangers you over hear talking in the store to the gurus on the television.

When we are in a strong bull market, and it seems like the market will not go down no matter what, you can get a great stock investing tip just from throwing a dart at the list of stocks in Investors Business Daily, and come out with a winner.

An Investing Tip can come from an article you read in the newspaper or a magazine. Usually the time you read about it, the stock has already made it’s big move. That is when the smart money starts taking their profits and sells to the dump money.

Sometimes investing tips come as a pump and dump. With the smaller priced stocks it does not take much money to buy alot of shares. They will then start talking about, or writing newsletters about how good (pump) the company is just to get people to start buying the stock, and at the same time they are selling (dump) their shares.

If you are getting into the market because of a tip you got, you are bound to lose your hard earned money. Sure you might get lucky a few times, like in a strong bull market, but in the long run you will eventually lose all your money that you set aside for investing.

The best stock investing tip you will ever receive is going to be right here. Do not buy any stock on any tip that you here!!! Do not put your hard earned money in any investment blindly, do your homework. Many beginners in the stock market will feel that they have to jump in on the tip they have gotten in order to make the big buck. They are afraid the train is going to leave without them. They don’t want to be left out of the big move.
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Real Estate Appraisal – Do It Yourself

Thursday, September 16th, 2010

For single family homes, there are two basic methods used in real estate appraisal. They are replacement cost analysis, and using comparable sales. A third appraisal method, based on capitalization, is used for income properties, and is covered in another article.

BIG TITS

In figuring replacement cost the question is: What would it cost to buy this land and put this house on it? If the land (improved) would cost $40,000, and the house could be built for $150,000, the value indicated would be around $190,000 – if the house is fairly new. If it has used up 10% of its useful life, you can deduct $15,000 for depreciation.

Replacement cost is not really a very useful measurement. It is difficult to say what the land is worth in a city center where none is left for sale, for example, and tough to gauge depreciation. It is used as a secondary method, and for unique homes that can’t be compared easily with others. The primary method of real estate appraisal used for homes is a market analysis using comparable sales.

Real Estate Appraisal 101

To get a good idea of what a home should sell for, you need to compare it to homes that have sold. Find at least three similar homes in the same area that have sold within the last year, preferably within the last six months. This information is available in the county records, or from a real estate agent with access to the MLS (multiple listing service).

Now the confusing part. You start with the selling price of each of your comparables. If your subject home has a second bathroom, and the a comparable doesn’t, you add the value of the bathroom to the sales price of the comparable. If a comparable home has a blacktop driveway, and the subject home doesn’t, you take the value away.
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Real Estate Agent Marketing

Thursday, September 16th, 2010

If you run a real estate business, you are well aware of the importance of marketing. If your potential clients don’t find you, they are likely to find your competitor and give their commissions to them.

Internet marketing is an excellent solution for real estate agents. A real estate agent can reach people who they would not be able to meet otherwise by using Internet marketing. Here are five tips to help you reach your potential customers:

- Create A Professional Web Site For Your Real Estate Business. You need to present a professional online image to attract real estate clients. Potential clients who find your web site will equate the professional look and feel of the web site to your own professionalism, since the web site is the only piece of information they have to evaluate your real estate business.

The web site for your real estate business should have a professional look and feel and have information about you, your business, and services that you provide to your clients. There should be a way for potential clients to contact you. After all, you would like these people to get in touch with you and start working with you.

- Publish A Real Estate Newsletter. Not everyone who comes to your web site is going to be in need of your services immediately. Many people shop around, reading information about dozens of real estate agents before picking a real estate agent to work with. Others may not need to buy or sell a house now, but they maybe in need of your services at a later date. You need to be able to keep in touch with people who come to your web site, but are not ready to hire you yet.

A newsletter is a great tool to keep in touch with your web site visitors, share information with them and educate them about your products and services. Make sure that you have a newsletter subscribe form on every page of your web site, and that you offer a compelling reason for your web site visitors to subscribe to it.
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